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Republicans can't agree on this climate deal brokered by Obama

BY DINO GRANDONI

with Paulina Firozi

THE LIGHTBULB

(iStock)

Republicans are happy to see the Trump administration do away with most of the climate policies of the previous president — or at least try to. But conservative politicians and activists are deeply divided over whether to cement into law a hard-fought international agreement on a set of little-known greenhouse gases.

The tiff concerns a multilateral effort to phase out hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs. That class of organic compounds, which are used in but also leak from air conditioners, pose a duel threat to the planet: They erode Earth's protective ozone layer and amplify the greenhouse effect.

In President Barack Obama's final full year in office, his administration negotiated an amendment to the landmark Montreal Protocol attempting to curtail their use. But conservatives are divided about whether they should ratify the changes to the treaty now that they are in charge.

On the one side of the debate is much of the U.S. cooling industry, which supports what is called the Kigali Amendment, after the Rwandan city in which it was negotiated.

Domestic manufacturers want to make sure they are not shut out of the international market for the next generation of air conditioners as millions in sweltering nations in Asia, Africa and South America rise from poverty to buy cooling systems (all while temperatures climb, too).

Even the tea party-aligned group FreedomWorks touted the job-creating potential of the amendment in a letter last month. And for once, environmentalists and manufacturers are largely on the same page regarding a climate treaty.

“That’s not particularly common,” said Francis Dietz, spokesman for the Air-Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), an industry group.

On the other side are strident critics of climate-change science and mitigation efforts who do not want to see the ozone-layer treaty being used to fight climate change.

The latest firework occurred last week when the leaders of two dozen conservative groups wrote to President Trump pleading with him to reject the amendment.

“The Kigali Amendment would not advance the purpose of the Montreal Protocol,” said the letter, organized by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, “but would instead turn a treaty aimed at saving the ozone layer into a global-warming treaty.”

The amendment, like all treaties, must be submitted by the president to the Senate for approval. A two-thirds supermajority in the upper chamber must ratify it to become law.

But the HFC provision has a decent chance of meeting that high margin even in the GOP-controlled chamber. Already 13 Senate Republicans, ranging from moderates such as Susan Collins (Maine) to solid conservatives such as Tim Scott (S.C.), urged Trump in a letter to send them the treaty amendment.

In a sign of the political times, the senators' letter to Trump does not once mention the phrases “climate change” or “global warming.”

Instead, the senators focus on potential job losses to China should the United States fail to ratify. GOP Sen. John Kennedy, whose state of Louisiana is home to Honeywell and Mexichem Fluor factories involved in refrigerant manufacturing, led the petition to Trump.

“By sending this amendment to the Senate, you will help secure America’s place as the global leader in several manufacturing industries, and in turn give American workers an advantage against their competitors in the international marketplace,” the senators said.

But the Trump administration has for months delayed making a decision on whether to send the treaty to the Senate. In February, White House energy and climate adviser George David Banks said the Trump administration wanted “really good economic information” before coming to a decision on Kigali.

So AHRI hired consultants to interview companies and model the impact of the amendment. In a report published in April, the industry association projected ratifying Kigali would create an additional 33,000 jobs by 2027.

“The White House staff asked us to provide information on the jobs and trade benefits of Kigali ratification,” said Kevin Fay, head of the government affairs firm Alcalde & Fay. “We believe the strong economic analysis speaks for itself.”

But Trump still has yet to act.

Banks, who left the White House this year and says he supports ratifying Kigali “150 percent,” said there were still concerns among some members of the Trump administration over the cost to consumers of transitioning away from HFCs.

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that has proven to be influential in the Trump White House and that opposes expanding the scope of the Montreal Protocol to address climate change, issued its own counter-report arguing that phasing down HFCs would “impose substantial costs on American families” through higher air-conditioning and refrigerator prices.

“I would add that nothing is preventing businesses or families from switching,” said Nick Loris, a energy and environmental policy analyst at Heritage. “If they are cost-competitive, the market will make that transition.”

In response, the air-conditioning industry says cooling chemicals constitute a small fraction of the cost of new equipment and that, like with flat-screen televisions, that expense is falling over time.

Given the blue-collar factory jobs at stake, Banks says he is “bullish” on Trump supporting Kigali.

“The president is not going to trade away a portion of the U.S. manufacturing base just so consumers can save a little in the short term,” Banks said.

With the midterm elections approaching and a Supreme Court nomination on the docket, time is quickly evaporating for senators to approve the amendment this year if Trump sent it to them.

But refrigerant manufacturers say time is on their side. The United States could face trade restrictions beginning in the 2030s if the United States does not agree to the provision.

With or without U.S. backing, enough nations have signed the amendment for it to go into force next year.

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